Friday, March 13, 2015
Where's the Pipe?
Maybe better said, “Where's the Beef”? Look, it is March already again, which means spring will be here in another 3-months, or so! Wow, carbon “PM-XXX” particulate matter emissions have just “spiked” considerably here in the interior – and now an “Air Quality Alert”? That's right, the Iditarod is in full swing just down the road, which means Alaska gets attacked with about 12-tonnes of diarrhea that gets trampled upon by the mutts and dissipates as “particular stinky” matter. Breath in deep! And you thought some guy “crapping” on the hood of your car was indecent composure! Look, as the geese start to head north, it appears something of importance will be stalled once again from enjoying such a migration and it gives me a “minor” migraine. Are we getting used to it, the excuses? We Alaskans have waited so patiently the last 35-years or so, still no sign of pipe showing up to bring us “Affordable” natural gas! But let's throw more money at the Alaska Natural Gas & LNG Project “REVISION” 2689! Yup, a deficit due low oil prices, let's cut the buses, let's trim the teaching staff, let's cut-out the “Film Tax Crook Credit” – I welcome that so maybe Billy Brown & Family can finally see what a jail cell is all about – but we must spend more money on the invincible “Dream Pipeline”! Maybe insensible a better fit. I honestly believe the state should try to “patent” this long-lasting relationship, as “perpetual motion”. An erection lasting longer then 4-hours? It's pathetic, as it appears that what is happening is simply good strategy – not by the state but outside interests! The EXXON guys are smart. They realized early on that any attempt to get that “stranded gas” to market was a risk. So team up with a foreign entity like Trans-Canada that had already schmoozed Sarah Palin and with a good song and dance – a.k.a. wine & dine the Juneau slime on our dime – well get the “citizens” of Alaska to pick up the tab to pay for all the front-end line work, and that is what appears to be happening today. The return-on-investment of such a risk, well it could mean a sell out. We are paying for everybody else's research, from design to economic reality and of course probably allowing some of that loot to influence political “War Chests”. A project of this size, it needs intervention by the Alaska delegation, and that interference comes at a cost. Look, it was cold in Washington this past winter, and since Don Young has such an “Integrated Mega-Office” that is more in tune to a “Great White Hunter's” museum, it costs money to heat. Honestly, if Don charged admission, it would help the state's deficit. Look, Bill Clinton charges admission to his penis palace museum, and since Don likes to show off his “oosik”, what's the problem? See, Alaska's political scene is also “Perpetual Locomotion”. Look, you may think Alaska is part of that “Integrated Mega-Project” sworn to secrecy by EXXON, but we have not been officially acknowledged by the regulators as a party to this extravagant free-for-all, the regulators that make the decision on the permitting phase of this “Monster” and with “Negotiated Contracts” for the “Ins & Outs”. Alaska who? “Alaska LNG notes that, on May 8, 2014, Alaska Governor Sean Parnell signed Senate Bill 138 into law, enabling the State of Alaska to participate in the Alaska LNG Project. Alaska LNG notes that it may seek to amend the Application to add a State of Alaska designee.” We should be part of that process right now, and for reasons unexplainable, why not? Something is fishy, something stinks, besides dog crap. So we are not part of what goes before the review boards, it's called transparency. But there seems to be a calm before the storm? And here is an update as too why everybody is very quiet about things – as there will come a storm when someone finally admits, “It Ain't Going To Happen” and NO we didn't get our money's worth – about a $billion$ wasted when it is all said and done and the fascination we could do something right and not in-line with that “Bridge To Nowhere” concept. OK, the storm will commence when the word of “No New Gas” is out and the ARMY and the Air Force pull out, as the economics of this project talks about the doom and gloom if it doesn't happen. Basically, the “brass” have been told it will happen! Said again, “Where's the Pipe”? If this project was a GO by now, the pipe yards in Fairbanks would be filled with rows and rows of “Made in America” steel pipe and “ditch diggers” and the union halls would have “Hiring” lines smiling with joy. But today all I see is “Hiring” at fast food joints – welcome home troops, that's your future! Anyway, we waited too damn long as politics surely got in the way of progress. Had we been successful with the Yukon Pacific venture, we would be breathing clean air already in the interior and Joe Uselessbelli would have been bankrupt before successful at getting his family into politics. What you mean it already happened? Look, one guy against a gas pipeline, look no further! Anyway, even with all the secrecy behind this project – because the legislatures are afraid if it is deciphered it proves they failed miserably so far – let me try to unravel the mystery. See, the export markets are not really flooded with LNG, but there is no vacant capacity, for at least the next 25-years, maybe more. That is with FTA countries wherein exports are “conditionally approved” by the Department of Energy – like LNG may be exported to Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jordan, Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, Oman, Panama, Peru, Republic of Korea, and Singapore maybe more. So, the only likely recipients that may be interested on an export potential comes by way of Non-FTA trade nations, which takes a special waiver of sorts from the DOE. Now when the FTA market started filling up, there came numerous applications to allow trade with the Non-Trade countries, especially for LNG exports. But the DOE cannot and will not just say OK, as it is not “Free-Trade” and more in line with “Fee-Trade” – maybe bribery with war lords! For approval, it takes a whole lot more push & shove to permit exports to nations that may not see eye-to-eye with how we do business here in the “Union”. Like with worker rights, compensation and safety concerns at the work-place. So the DOE must weigh in many factors before it signs off on something that could upset the “Trade” balance. The reason that about a dozen lower-48 applications are awaiting approval to export to the “noners” and it is taking about 2-years and more for approval. In fact, some of the entities hoping for approval, they may never find such a permit. And with such delays, that can make or break a project. And the Alaska project has yet to apply for exports to the “noners”! And for good reason. See, one of the things that is looked at with respect to allowing an export is the “Green House Gas” perspective. With Alaska getting an approval for export to FTA countries – but no contracts to be had due over-supply and cheaper gas from Texas – one of the factors considered is the “carbon footprint”. With Alaska's LNG project, when all was said and done, there was really no-gain no-loss, so it was considered a “neutral” project wherein the export of natural gas would indeed favor a “net-neutrality” in CO2 reductions but at the same time the size of the “Mega Project” had increases that almost eliminated any “credits”. So, it wasn't really an environmentally sound project, iffy at best and only with FTA approved countries. Accordingly: “The development of the AKLNG project leads to emissions decline in the long-run, but changes in total U.S. emissions are small at approximately -0.01%.” So, since many Non-FTA countries have terrible operating environments to begin with, there is doubt whether or not this project with exports to the “noners” would meet the DOE criteria. So I would suspect that the calm before the storm is due the Alaska delegation using Don's “oosik” to persuade the DOE to chill out, as there ain't no such thing as “Global Warming” in nations that deface an individual's “liberty”! And that is what many politicians mean when they say that “Global Warming” doesn't exist, as without records, it's anyone's “best” guess – same guessing game we have here today in the 49er, when in hell will that pipe show?
Posted by Green Mountain Boy at 3:47 PM